UFC 74 Odds are out now for the full card of fights. I see a lot of posts on UFC forums about what the odds mean and how they are wrong, etc.. There is also the perception that if you bet on every underdog you will be raking in the cash. Do the odds makers know what they’re doing? Here’s a quick look at UFC odds statistics and what they might mean about who will win at UFC 74. The information is based on UFC events only and dates back to UFC 56.
Joe Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino: Stevenson is correctly tabbed as the heavy favorite. You can make an argument for Pellegrino, but realistically he’s got no chance.
Kendall Grove vs Patrick Cote: Grove looks like he’s on schedule to earn a title shot in the next year, he’s moved into the top 10 of MW contenders and he gives everybody in the division matchup problems. Cote is a solid fighter who has struggled when facing tough competition. Grove is deserving of the favorite status and should put together another dominant performance.
Roger Huerta vs Alberto Crane: Huerta is rolling now and he got a wake up call from Doug Evans last fight. Huerta ran into a buzz saw and was nearly taken out by Evans. Huerta will be a improved fighter after that night. He is favored heavily to continue winning. Crane is an undefeated fighter moving up from smaller shows, but things don’t look good for him. Not enough effective striking to give Huerta any problems standing and Roger will control the ground action. Stats say Huerta.
Babalu vs David Heath: Heath is +240, but Babalu is aging and his title hopes are non-existent. Heath needs to win this fight badly to take the next step up the ladder. Heath seems like a good value, but this is a meaningless fight and I see no reason to buck the trend. Stay with the favorite, Babalu.
“i agree babalu is a concern due to his current issues, but he’s still awesome. he’s still right there around the top 10 & probably could beat anyone at 205 on a good night. i’m not betting on heath. if people bet heath to get babalu down around -200, he’s still my guy.” -Zewkey Forum
Frank Mir and Antoni Hardonk: Neither guy excites me. I see no reason to go against trend in this one.
Clay Guida vs Marcus Aurelio: Looks like an even matchup. Pride fighters have struggled in their UFC debuts and Guida has lost two straight. Don’t be fooled by their records, Guida’s losses were close and he fought well. Tough call.