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UFC, WEC, Affliction, EliteXC and other MMA notes

UFC 86 Parlays

UFC Parlays are offered at only two betting sites currently, 5Dimes (review) and BetUs (review). Both sites allow mixed sport parlays, combining boxing, football and UFC picks is acceptable. You can also combine fighters in different events, i.e. Rampage at UFC 86 and Brock Lesnar at UFC 87.

There are lots of theories about parlays, but not much specifically concerning how to profit from parlaying UFC or MMA fights. Obviously, you must pick winners. Don’t bother with value bets or longshot underdogs, you’d be better off just playing them straight up.

UFC 86 looks like a night for the favorites, but I’m going to start off by simply picking and prioritizing who are the most likely winners in each fight.

Stevenson
Tyson Griffin
Koscheck
—big drop off—
Rampage
Gonzaga
Almieda
Gurgel

Now that I have a feel for how they stack up, look at the odds. First thing I notice is that Gonzaga is -600, yet I don’t have much confidence in him winning. In my eyes, he’s too risky with no reward. Stevenson is my most likely winner and he’s reasonably priced at -210, so I am going to include him in several parlays. Tyson Griffin (-350) and Koscheck (-325) are about the same in odds and my confidence factor. They don’t offer huge payouts, but its enough to sprinkle them in with a couple other picks. Rampage, Almieda and Gurgel won’t make me rich, so I will use them sparingly.

  • Stevenson + T Griffin 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck + T Griffin 2 units
  • Stevenson + Rampage 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Almieda 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Gurgel 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Gurgel 1 unit
  • Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit
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July 3, 2008 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , , ,

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