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WEC 33 Odds and Analysis

WEC 33 continues the tradition of great shows for Versus on March 26th. Some of the best young fighters can be found in the WEC and we will see several on this show. Brian Stann, Blas Avena, Brock Larson, Marcus Hicks and Ed Ratcliff all have top ten talent.

WEC 33 Odds and AnalysisThe constantly maligned Doug Marshall (+130) will defend his WEC Light Heavyweight Belt against Brian Stann. Despite Marshall’s success (earned in the octagon,) most “experts” continually cast doubts on his ability. Brian Stann (-160) enters this fight as a slight favorite due to his powerful striking. Stann has progressed steadily and appears ready challenge the “Rhino” in what should be a tremendous fight.

I believe the oddsmakers got the line right. Although Marshall is the experienced defending champion, Stann has a clear advantage in the standup. Marshall is a competitor and he will trade with Stann initially. Stann’s punching is crisp, powerful and he’s quicker than Marshall, which will give him an opportunity to hit home with some big shots early on. If you have never seen Brian Stann watch how he commits to his punches, he stays “in the pocket” and delivers his shot better than anyone except possibly Rampage. If you like Stann, -160 is a reasonable price.

Do not discount Doug Marshall! If he can neutralize Stann’s punching advantage and get this fight to the ground, he will retain the title. Stann’s never had to scramble against anyone with the ability of Marshall. Marshall is most dangerous when chaos breaks out during the fight, which is likely considering Stann’s combination of explosiveness and inexperience. Marshall is somewhat of a poor man’s Anderson Silva, he’s demonstrated that he can finish a fight in a variety of ways.

I give the edge to Stann, he’s more talented and its time for him to take a step up in competition. He appears to be the kind of fighter that passes these kind of “incremental” steps. I respect Marshall and will bet on him if he reaches +200. The guy is constantly underestimated and he continually proves his critics wrong. There are better fights to bet on Wednesday night.

The early favorite for Fight of the Night is between two combustible strikers. Ed Ratcliff (-105) and Marcus Hicks (-125) are both undefeated, each with a couple of impressive WEC fights. Ratcliff is a pure striker who has yet to be tested on the mat, he’s efficient, accurate and deadly. Marcus Hicks is high intensity bowling ball with two bomb-throwing fists. Hicks has proven to have some ability on the ground, albeit against inexperienced opponents. Ratcliff will have to do some serious damage as Hicks rushes in. If Hicks gets to Ratcliff’s chest, it will be all over. Whichever guy wins this fight will be a serious contender to challenge Faber.

clubber LangI like Hicks in this fight. He’s a better all around fighter who should be a bigger favorite. Ratcliff and Hicks are both very effective strikers, although they are completely different. Ratcliff is elegant and technical perfection, while Hicks is a menacing fury similar to Clubber Lang. Bottom line is Hicks has more ways to win this fight and I see him imposing his style in the ring. FWIW, this matchup is similar to KJ Noons vs Crazy Horse (Hicks is much better than Bennett.)

Chael Sonnen (-365) is set to fight Bryan Baker (+275), after Filho dropped out. Everyone saw Sonnen dominate Filho before getting caught in an arm-bar, so obviously he will dominate the no-name Baker who is taking the fight on short notice. Not so fast my friend, Baker was scheduled for this card all along so his training is a non-issue. Baker is somewhat inconsistent, but he’s got some explosive power to go along with a little wrestling game. Sonnen is a plodding striker that can look good against a submission specialist, but I think Baker can dominate Sonnen on his feet. This fight could be tailor-made for Baker to show his skills. I’m not guaranteeing a win, Sonnen might control the action and smother Baker for 3 rounds but at nearly 3-1 Baker offers great value. Only an idiot would play Sonnen at this price, Baker is the only bettable fighter in this contest.

I’d bet my life Brock Larson (-270) is going crazy right now (Tuesday afternoon,) if he can contain himself long enough to get into the ring it will be bad news for John Alessio (+210). Larson is simply better at all aspects of MMA than Alessio, he is stronger, faster, strikes better, grapples better, etc…

Larson’s a top ten talent who let a big opportunity escape him when he lost to Condit. Tomorrow night he will show everyone it was a fluke. Larson will work his way in close to Alessio, take him down and beat him up. Alessio will be reduced to waiting for a mistake and trying to capitalize. Fat chance, Larson’s learned the lesson. Most likely winner of the night.

Bets

Baker (+275)
Larson (-270)
Hicks (-125)

Check out the current odds at the MMA Betting SuperPage.

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March 25, 2008 Posted by | Blas Avena, Brian Stann, Brock Larson, Bryan Baker, Chael Sonnen, Doug Marshall, Ed Ratcliff, John Alessio, Marcus Hicks, WEC 33 | Leave a comment

WEC 30 Notes-Post Fight

Chase Beebe was good, the only fighter that can beat him will be a crisp puncher with enough power to hurt him early. Don’t know any at 135.  His fitness level was incredible.

Rani Yahya is one qwik mofo, but i dont think he threw any punches. a couple kicks at the start of rd 3.  Yahya is incredible with his lightning fast submission attemp, but showed nothing else.  He is very capable of beating anyone.  A striker with very good takedown defense should handle him easily.

Bryan Baker was impressive for a young dude, got rocked and came back strong, awesome reversal slam. Baker looked good on his feet and on the ground. I have never thought much of forbes, so im a little skeptical.  Baker could be excellent as an underdog as he continues to take on tougher opponents.  Don’t go overboard yet.

Jesse forbes looked 100 times better than the guy on TUF, he can bang.  Wore down pretty fast after his initial flurry.  Never as a favorite, could payoff as longshot.  

Avenas was good, but he needs more combat time. 30 second fights are great, but he needs some guys to push him now. he’s ready to move up.  Lots of speed, quickness  and strength.  Looks like he is moving in the right direction too.  No negatives yet, someone needs to put him to the test and see what happens.

McCullough and Stann were kind of the same story, both stood in the line of fire until they landed their shots. both are devasting punchers. Both guys look like they can stand and trade against anyone and come out the best 99%.  Stann took a couple good shots and hardly flinched.  I think stann is definite contender now at WEC level and not completely overmatched in UFC. Not quite a contender. same with Razor.

Torres’ win was good, but kind of fools gold, imo. Bedard took him down easily but couldnt put together an attack and left the door open for any good submission guy. Beebe beats him, but he wont be an underdog this time.  Verdict is still out on Torres, but Bedard struggled to put away a physically weaker guy, not a good sign.

September 7, 2007 Posted by | Blas Avena, Bryan Baker, Chase Beebe, Jeff Bedard, Jesse Forbes, Miguel Torres, Rani Yahya, Rob McCullough. Brian Stann | 6 Comments

WEC 29 Aftermath

Its been a few days since WEC 29, so now is the time to evaluate what was learned about our heros.

Brock Larson– He suffered a disappointing loss and you could see his anguish after the fight. He should tapped, but did not give in and possibly took a serious injury to that elbow. When he recovers he’ll be a better fighter. He was imposing himself on Condit until he got caught in the armbar. Larson is a good fighter and this loss should not diminish his value, in my opinion. Hopefully the elbow will be good to go soon.

Carlos Condit– Another impressive fight from Condit. He was obvisiouly overmatched by Larson’s strength but adapted well and dealt with the pressure perfectly. Condit showed that he’s a dangerous fighter from his back, with good sub attempts and some dangerous strikes too. It will take a very good fighter to beat him, most likely a crisp puncher that can punch his way in close.

Bodog Fight

Paulo Filho– Filho beat a good veteran fighter while coming back of a considerable layoff. Filho’s vaunted ground game was shut down by Doerkson. Both guys looked slow in my eyes. Filho could have some real trouble with a quick and technically sound puncher. He is open to straight shots and his punching was sloppy. For a highly ranked fighter, his stand up is very suspect.

Joe Doerksen– Seem slowed, but defended TD’s well against the BJJ king. Doerksen still should be able to handle guys at his level and below, but will struggle against the top rung guys-particularly strikers that defend takedowns. A qwik, young guy with some power should really give him fits.

Jeff Curran– Showed he can handle a guy he should beat. Curran looks like he will struggle against the top tier guys. He’s got a well rounded game.

Stephan Ledbetter– Young fighter had a good showing against a solid vet in Curran. He’s tough and has some ability. He was unable to mount much of an attack against Curran and should do much better if he gets matched up against someone closer to his current ability. Could pull of an upset against the type of fighter that throws “caution to the wind.”

Tiki Ghosn– Early loss is hard to learn much from. Was Tiki terrible or his opponent very good? I will lean towards Avena being good. Ghosn came forward, where he ran into trouble and did not deal with it well. His defense needs to improve when he runs into adversity.

Blas Avena– looked impressive. He was quick and powerful, once he got the advantage he was all over Ghosn. Avena has the look of a quicker more aggressive Okami. Watch his progress, he needs another fight in three months.

Jamie Varner– very impressive against a solid fighter. Varner is strong on the ground and capable standing. He definitely moves up off this performance, which reminded me a little of Sherk.

Sherron Leggett– Ran into an awesome looking Worm, but don’t throw him under the bus yet. He was resilient and managed some effective attacks against Varner, who might be near the top of this divison right now. Leggett need to work on his jui-jitsu, but he will be back winning fights soon. I don’t see him being overmatched by anyone.

August 8, 2007 Posted by | Blas Avena, Brock Larson, Carlos Condit, Jamie Varner, Jeff Curran, Joe Doerksen, Paulo Filho, Sherron Leggett, Stephan Ledbetter, Tiki Ghosn, WEC | Leave a comment