UFC 76 Notes – Aftermath

Now that the dust has settled, here are my thoughts about some of the fighters and what the impact is on future UFC betting.

Chuck Liddell– As Rogan was said, Chuck had problems “getting off,” that’s a boxing phrase that’s used a lot when describing old fighters.  Liddell is going to have big problems with any strikers that are quick and crisp punchers.  Look to bet against him if he gets matched up with anyone but submission fighters.

Keith Jardine- Continues to improve.  His loss to Alexander did little to slow down his development.  He is playable as an underdog against anyone in the division, but I would not lay odds with him (he will be overvalued if he faces some lesser opponents. He gets hit a lot still and anyone with power can rock him at any time.  Not sure how would handle some of the submission guys, but there are not many at 205 anyway.

Forrest Griffin- Similar progression to Jardine.  Although he looks like a better all around fighter to me.  His ground defense is better than I thought and he’s improved on his mental skills.   His style is always going to put him at risk, but thats his game.  Can compete with anyone and deserves consideration anytime he’s a dog.  I feel better play him as a favorite than Jardine, but not at a high price.

Shogun Rua– His performance was bad.  He was soundly beaten by Griffin.  I’m not betting his next fight under any circumstance, although I expect him to get things sorted out and come back strong.  I’m giving him a pass on this fight and will re-evaluate after his next bout.

Thiago Tavares-Ran into Tyson Griffin, whose fight very well.  Tavares is a very good ground fighter that is constantly looking for submissions.  Tavares should struggle with Sherk, Griffin, Stevenson but he’s good enough to handle all the other guys at 155.  Watch for betting opportunities, he’s still fairly unknown and coming off a loss, he could have some value.

Tyson Griffin– Fits in the top contender status, no doubt. He is a solid all around fighter that should be considered playable as a sizable favorite.  Looks like he’s damn near unchokable and the only way I see him getting in real trouble is from a top quality puncher that can land some heavy combos then sub him, maybe Gomi?  Hansen?