zewkey

UFC, WEC, Affliction, EliteXC and other MMA notes

UFC 90 Parlay Picks

UFC Parlays are offered at only two betting sites currently, 5Dimes (review) and BetUs (review). Both sites allow mixed sport parlays, combining boxing, football and UFC picks is acceptable. You can also combine fighters in different events, i.e. Rampage at UFC 90 and Brock Lesnar at UFC 91.

There are lots of theories about parlays, but not much specifically concerning how to profit from parlaying UFC or MMA fights. Obviously, you must pick winners. Don’t bother with value bets or longshot underdogs, you’d be better off just playing them straight up.

The favorites seem to be overpriced for UFC 90 which is a good reason to play a few parlays. Instead of betting on the “value” offered by an underdog you have little confidence in, try putting together a few combinations that will pay-off better than a simple straight up bet.

Here’s a few two-man options that will return almost even money, take your pick of one fighter from group A and one fighter from group B:

Group A

  • Sean Sherk (-245)
  • Gray Maynard (-240)
  • Burkman (-240)

Group B

  • Dan Miller (-350)
  • Spencer Fisher (-350)
  • Big Nog (UFC 92) (-360)

If you have an underdog you like at UFC 90, you’re already getting a great price. Miller and Fisher are very likely winners, you could maximize your profit by making a 3-man parlay using the guys from group B.

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October 23, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , | Leave a comment

UFC 86 Parlays

UFC Parlays are offered at only two betting sites currently, 5Dimes (review) and BetUs (review). Both sites allow mixed sport parlays, combining boxing, football and UFC picks is acceptable. You can also combine fighters in different events, i.e. Rampage at UFC 86 and Brock Lesnar at UFC 87.

There are lots of theories about parlays, but not much specifically concerning how to profit from parlaying UFC or MMA fights. Obviously, you must pick winners. Don’t bother with value bets or longshot underdogs, you’d be better off just playing them straight up.

UFC 86 looks like a night for the favorites, but I’m going to start off by simply picking and prioritizing who are the most likely winners in each fight.

Stevenson
Tyson Griffin
Koscheck
—big drop off—
Rampage
Gonzaga
Almieda
Gurgel

Now that I have a feel for how they stack up, look at the odds. First thing I notice is that Gonzaga is -600, yet I don’t have much confidence in him winning. In my eyes, he’s too risky with no reward. Stevenson is my most likely winner and he’s reasonably priced at -210, so I am going to include him in several parlays. Tyson Griffin (-350) and Koscheck (-325) are about the same in odds and my confidence factor. They don’t offer huge payouts, but its enough to sprinkle them in with a couple other picks. Rampage, Almieda and Gurgel won’t make me rich, so I will use them sparingly.

  • Stevenson + T Griffin 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck + T Griffin 2 units
  • Stevenson + Rampage 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Almieda 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Gurgel 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Gurgel 1 unit
  • Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit

July 3, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , | Leave a comment

UFC 85 Parlay Picks

UFC 85 is Saturday and its time to get some payback. Jardine wiped me out (1W-5L, -4 units) on my UFC 84 Parlays, wtf was that all about? 5dimes and BetUs both take MMA parlays, but they are the only ones right now. Both sites have bonus offers available in the sidebar if you’re interested.

I see three fights at UFC 85 that I really like. Fabricio Werdum, Marcus Davis and Matt Hughes all offer some value at their current odds. I also think that Carniero and Tavares are sure winner, unfortunately their odds are too high. I agree with this analysis of UFC 85, and this is how I’m playing it this weekend.

June 5, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , | Leave a comment

UFC 84 Parlay Picks

UFC 84 offers some really good betting opportunities, with one of the best bets I have seen this year.  Here’s my thoughts on a few UFC 84 parlay bets.  5dimes and BetUs both take MMA parlays, but they are the only ones right now.

I will start off with the best betting opportunity I have seen in the UFC this year.  Keith Jardine +155.  Wandy nuthuggers must be blind.  Jardine demolished Chuck, no contest.  Wandy is a plodder like Chuck, but he’s not as dangerous as a counterpuncher nor does he have Chuck’s power and precision.  Wandy’s only hope is to cast a spell on Jardine and entice him into his clinch.  Ain’t gonna happen.  This is an easy fight for Jardine.  Im going to use him as a key in several parlays.

Clementi is different fighter now than 18 months ago, he’s put it all together and he’ll dominate Etim.  I’m going to sprinkle Sherk in on a couple too.  I think Sherk and BJ are close to even and a year ago Sherk would have been a favorite in this fight.  Penn’s win over Stevenson was a little lucky cause he caught a careless Stevenson early, yet still struggled to put him away.

Jardine (+155) + Clementi (-200)  3 units

Jardine (+155) + Sherk (+220) 1 unit

Jardine (+155) + Clementi (-200) + Sherk (+220) 1 unit

Clementi (-200) + Sherk (+220) 1 unit

Yoshida (-160) + Clementi (-200) 1 unit

May 23, 2008 Posted by | UFC, UFC Betting | , , , , , | 2 Comments