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UFC, WEC, Affliction, EliteXC and other MMA notes

UFC 90 Parlay Picks

UFC Parlays are offered at only two betting sites currently, 5Dimes (review) and BetUs (review). Both sites allow mixed sport parlays, combining boxing, football and UFC picks is acceptable. You can also combine fighters in different events, i.e. Rampage at UFC 90 and Brock Lesnar at UFC 91.

There are lots of theories about parlays, but not much specifically concerning how to profit from parlaying UFC or MMA fights. Obviously, you must pick winners. Don’t bother with value bets or longshot underdogs, you’d be better off just playing them straight up.

The favorites seem to be overpriced for UFC 90 which is a good reason to play a few parlays. Instead of betting on the “value” offered by an underdog you have little confidence in, try putting together a few combinations that will pay-off better than a simple straight up bet.

Here’s a few two-man options that will return almost even money, take your pick of one fighter from group A and one fighter from group B:

Group A

  • Sean Sherk (-245)
  • Gray Maynard (-240)
  • Burkman (-240)

Group B

  • Dan Miller (-350)
  • Spencer Fisher (-350)
  • Big Nog (UFC 92) (-360)

If you have an underdog you like at UFC 90, you’re already getting a great price. Miller and Fisher are very likely winners, you could maximize your profit by making a 3-man parlay using the guys from group B.

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October 23, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , | Leave a comment

UFC 86 Parlays

UFC Parlays are offered at only two betting sites currently, 5Dimes (review) and BetUs (review). Both sites allow mixed sport parlays, combining boxing, football and UFC picks is acceptable. You can also combine fighters in different events, i.e. Rampage at UFC 86 and Brock Lesnar at UFC 87.

There are lots of theories about parlays, but not much specifically concerning how to profit from parlaying UFC or MMA fights. Obviously, you must pick winners. Don’t bother with value bets or longshot underdogs, you’d be better off just playing them straight up.

UFC 86 looks like a night for the favorites, but I’m going to start off by simply picking and prioritizing who are the most likely winners in each fight.

Stevenson
Tyson Griffin
Koscheck
—big drop off—
Rampage
Gonzaga
Almieda
Gurgel

Now that I have a feel for how they stack up, look at the odds. First thing I notice is that Gonzaga is -600, yet I don’t have much confidence in him winning. In my eyes, he’s too risky with no reward. Stevenson is my most likely winner and he’s reasonably priced at -210, so I am going to include him in several parlays. Tyson Griffin (-350) and Koscheck (-325) are about the same in odds and my confidence factor. They don’t offer huge payouts, but its enough to sprinkle them in with a couple other picks. Rampage, Almieda and Gurgel won’t make me rich, so I will use them sparingly.

  • Stevenson + T Griffin 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck 3 units
  • Stevenson + Koscheck + T Griffin 2 units
  • Stevenson + Rampage 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Almieda 1 unit
  • Stevenson + Gurgel 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Gurgel 1 unit
  • Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Rampage 1 unit
  • T Griffin + Koscheck + Almieda 1 unit

July 3, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , | Leave a comment